2025-26新赛季于8月16日凌晨揭幕，关于彩民来说，最着重的应该是：各支球队齐有了哪些变化？哪支球队更有投注价值？红彩邀请西班牙内行Borja给天下带来前瞻，Borja是西甲发文600场以上的内行中盈利率最高！

冠军争夺者：

巴塞罗那、和马德里竞技是仅有的三支的确梦念念捧起奖杯的球队，但要是你问我谁当先一步……我算计是巴塞罗那。

为什么？很简易。因为在西甲，强队濒临的最大挑战是如何击溃那些驻防温顺的球队，尤其是在客场。而巴萨领有矫捷的要紧火力，他们是一支要紧型球队，比赛节律非常怒放，有许多契机可以给敌手形成恫吓。我觉得他们不会在这种比赛中堕入逆境，不外在欧洲，他们需要在驻防上愈加踏实，情况就不同了。

他们保留了上赛季的中枢声势（拉米内·亚马尔、拉菲尼亚、佩德里……），并增多了拉什福德进行锋线瓜代，还有上赛季最好门将胡安·加西亚。凭借这么的比赛作风和声势，他们是我最可爱的球队。

另一方面，皇马正处于转型期。诚然，他们斥巨资签下了卡雷拉斯、赫伊森、阿诺德、马斯坦图诺诺……，但他们仍未弥补最大的厌世：找到一个的确能接替托尼·克罗斯的中场。要是莫得一个能够掌控并串联攻防的中场，许多比赛齐可能堕入僵局，尤其是在姆巴佩或维尼修斯阑珊斗志的情况下。旧年，他们赢得比赛更多依靠的是个东谈主才略而非团队勾通，这种情况可能再次发生。此外，他们的声势深度不够，锋线替补球员稀稀拉拉，而且新陶冶（哈维·阿隆索）也需要时辰来落实他的理念。即便如斯，凭借他们所领有的天禀，他们仍然是积分榜前两名的有劲图夺者。

此外，还有马德里竞技。他们斥资卓著1.5亿欧元签下了：阿莱克斯·巴埃纳（上赛季西甲最好球员之一）、蒂亚戈·阿尔马达、卡多佐……这些球员要么对比赛了如指掌，要么能立即带来高水平的施展。“马竞”正在奋力保握中枢声势的凝合力，他们知谈干预前三名是最低条件，但凭借这个声势，他们也有才略争夺冠军。

马竞最大的挑战在于普及客场发达。在广博会球场，他们凭借惯性碾压敌手，但在客场，他们难以展现我方的实力，难以进行高强度的逼抢，也难以展现出迷漫的勇气。要是他们果然迈出了这一步，那就要防备了，因为他们的实力可能非常可怕。要是作念不到，他们仍然会过期巴萨和皇马一筹。

至于关节球员：

● 巴萨 → 拉米内·亚马尔，一位无用置疑的新星；拉菲尼亚，本赛季将迎来明后；莱万多夫斯基，尽管是一位宿将，但依然保握着关节作用。

● 皇马 → 姆巴佩和维尼修斯，西甲最好要紧组合，尽管他们并非总能携手出击。

● 马竞 → 胡利安·阿尔瓦雷斯和巴埃纳担任弓手，索尔洛特担任斥逐者。

转头：巴萨和皇马省略有70-75%的契机，我把剩下的契机给了马竞……其他球队则只可望望了。

第四名即席位争夺者：

要是撇开巴萨、皇马和马竞不谈，那么临了一张门票将主要由毕尔巴鄂竞技和比利亚雷亚尔争夺。尽管两支球队的踢法判然不同，但他们是两支最有契机晋级的球队。

毕尔巴鄂竞技——圣马梅斯的堡垒

上赛季，毕尔巴鄂竞技赢得了西甲“第四大”球队的称呼。在圣马梅斯，他们如吞并谈坚固的城墙：高强度的叛逆、高压逼抢、踏实的驻防，以及欧洲少有的充满斗志的氛围。在那边打败他们简直是弗成能的。

在客场，他们的发达也相当可以，凭借着精妙的射门，他们赢得了几场势均力敌的比赛。对他们来说，这个夏天最棒的事情不是签约，而是留下了差点加盟巴萨的尼科·威廉姆斯。他们坚握只签下巴斯克球员的理念，因此转会市集并不吃力：最引东谈主防卫标签约是领有顶级联赛劝诫的右后卫阿雷索。

问题可能在于声势深度。在联赛、杯赛和欧冠之间，他们需要瓜代，因此你可以看到替补球员的水平比首发球员低一两档。威廉姆斯伯仲和桑塞特是关节球员，但要是他们中的任何一个受伤，球队的水平齐会大幅下落。

比利亚雷亚尔——进球如麻……但后防地缝隙百出

另一方面，比利亚雷亚尔的转会窗口期相当弥留。他们失去了巴埃纳，但这已成定局，他们进行了有用的再投资，签下了领有西甲劝诫和实力的球员。最大的跨越在于板凳深度，这让他们有更多瓜代继承，同期又不会损作假力。

他们一直以来的问题在于驻防。旧年，他们的后防地简直是一场横祸：丢球太多，简直每次齐需要进两三个球才调取胜。他们的要紧火力十足，但要是你念念在顶级联赛中竞争，就需要学习如安在0-1的情况下取胜。

坏音尘是，从赛季前的友谊赛发达来看，这支球队看起来和之前大同小异：要紧火力十足，能进球，但也丢球不少。要是他们不处治这个问题，西甲联赛所需的清闲性可能会让他们感到窒息。

谁会夺得第四名？

字据他们的声势和瓜代继承，我觉得本年可能是比利亚雷亚尔的赛季。他们比毕尔巴鄂竞技更有深度，在38场比赛的赛季里，这十足是一笔贵重的钞票。

和欧会杯席位争夺者：

在这场争夺中，一个名字特地杰出：皇家贝蒂斯。佩莱格里尼的球队失去了一些关节球员（赫苏斯·罗德里格斯和安东尼，他们旧年为球队赢得了不啻一场比赛），但他们仍然领有一支实力淳朴、声势平衡的戎行。

转会市集竞争利弊，他们增多了瓜代声势的继承，并保握了较着的作风。虽然，他们的魅力很猛经过上来自伊斯科，咱们齐知谈他的体魄现象并不老是能撑过悉数这个词赛季,而且在友谊赛中受伤可能会缺席3个月。然而贝蒂斯在主场发达可靠，客场也极具竞争力（尤其是在对阵中卑劣球队时），何况知谈如安在一周双赛的情况下完成瓜代。因此，尽管他们还莫得达到毕尔巴鄂竞技或比利亚雷亚尔那样的欧冠水平，但在我看来，他们无疑是欧联杯席位的热点。

西甲联赛：充满惊喜的怒放赛场

在这里，情况愈加怒放。上赛季，咱们看到像巴列卡诺和塞尔塔这么的球队悄然获取席位，但本年的情况有所不同。

● 巴列卡诺：他们简直莫得补强，声势质料和数目齐不及。旧年他们的发达超出预期，而当今，由于联赛客场作战和东谈主员流失，他们可能会濒临更大的压力。要是他们更倾向于左迁而不是欧战，我极少也不会感到诧异。

● 塞尔塔：他们的情况有所不同。克劳迪奥·吉拉尔德斯领有衔接性，知谈如何激发全队士气，何况信任青训球员。他们引进了费兰·于特格拉和布莱恩·萨拉戈萨（要是他状态好的话，他会成为一个的确的恫吓），何况保留了伊阿戈·阿斯帕斯算作主力球员。他们的弊端仍然是驻防，但他们将年青球员和劝诫丰富的球员很好地和会在一齐。他们在主场实力矫捷，客场作战，因此我觉得他们有望重现欧战明后，尽管我不知谈是在欧联杯如故联赛。

● 奥萨苏纳：一匹真理真理的黑马。他们有一位新陶冶，利西奇（他来自米兰德斯，在那边的乙级联赛中发达出色），以及一支与他作风非常契合的球队。要是他们能速即顺应，就能在埃尔萨达尔制造一些贫瘠，拿下关节分数，而埃尔萨达尔一直是他们的堡垒。

其他球队，比如皇家社会、瓦伦西亚和塞维利亚，在我看来，他们本年似乎并莫得为欧战而生的决心。尤其是塞维利亚，他们似乎更倾向于堕入逆境，而不是用一个欧战名目来激发球迷。

中游和保级球队：

除了咱们依然提到的那些争夺榜首位置和欧战席位的球队外，其他球队也齐昭彰，要是开局不利或状态欠安，左迁奏凯在望。垫底的球队实力悬殊，泼辣无比：一连串的伤病，或者一个月不堪，齐可能让你从幽闲的生活变成凑合保管生计。

上赛季咱们就见证了这极少：赫罗纳、阿拉维斯，甚而塞维利亚齐曾险些左迁，而赫塔菲和西班经纪东谈主等其他球队则在看似无力回天的情况下得手逃走。

简直老是如斯，从乙级联赛升上来的球队最有可能承受左迁：皇家奥维耶多、埃尔切和莱万特。

● 埃尔切：在我看来，是三支球队中最弱的一支。倒霉的转会市集，等闲的声势，以及阑珊能够在甲级联赛中保握竞争力的比赛作风。

● 莱万特：劝诫更丰富，声势肃穆，驻防端能够取胜，有望保握屡次零封。

● 奥维耶多：球员个东谈主实力不如莱万特，但声势非常肃穆。他们在主场会很断然，但客场可能会际遇重创。

其他可能堕入逆境的球队

● 阿拉维斯：旧年险些左迁，但目下状态并无太大起色。要是他们际遇逆境，可能很难还原。

● 马洛卡：陶冶团队里面存在问题，上赛季后半段的发达也令东谈主难以忘怀。要是他们陈词谰言，将不得不作念出紧要决定。

● 巴列卡诺：简直莫得引援，而且他们还要参加西杯。声势紧凑，客场作战……随时可能膂力透支。

● 赫罗纳：他们上赛季发达倒霉，严重依赖引援。他们有城市集团的援救，维托尔·雷斯这么的引援以及勒马尔的租赁加盟，可能会带来宏大的编削。他们最大的上风：进球才略，这在保级战中至关缺点。

● 塞维利亚：最大的疑问。要是他们在转会市集上失去卢克巴基奥或巴尔加斯，他们的要紧平衡将大大受损。他们阑珊进球、清闲性和总揽力十足的中场。高强度而弥留的比赛氛围也对他们不利，而且他们依然驱动出现体能问题。要么他们速即作念出反映，要么排行垫底也就不及为奇了。

懂得如安在泥泞中生涯的球队

赫塔菲和西班经纪东谈主恰是为此而生。他们是一支天生就具备竞争力的球队，领有深谙比赛之谈的陶冶和合适他们作风的声势。他们知谈如何斥逐比赛，如安在莫得漂亮发达的情况下拿分，以及如何争取许多贵重的平局。

25/26赛季西甲联赛最终算计

● 🏆 冠军：巴塞罗那——声势最圆善，要紧火力十足，领有冲破僵局的刀兵。

● ⚽ 最好弓手：姆巴佩——火力全开，有望卫冕最好弓手。

欧战席位：

1️⃣ 巴塞罗那

2️⃣ 马德里竞技（没错，排在皇家马德里之前）

3️⃣ 皇家马德里

4️⃣ 比利亚雷亚尔——声势深度是赛季赓续的关节。

5️⃣ 毕尔巴鄂竞技——主场圣马梅斯实力矫捷，但声势较弱，难以在三条阵线上竞争。

6️⃣ 皇家贝蒂斯——声势肃穆，佩莱格里尼深谙瓜代之策。

7️⃣ 塞尔塔——骁勇丧胆，进球如麻，在吉拉尔德斯的调教下发达出色。

左迁球队：

⛔ 埃尔切——联赛中最弱的球队。

⛔ 阿拉维斯——要是衔接取得倒霉得益，左迁风险很高。

⛔ 皇家奥维耶多——主场竞争力强，但客场阑珊劝诫且非常脆弱。

Borja英文原文：

🔥 Title race: Barça, Madrid, and Atlético, and little else

This year, it's back to three. Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Atlético Madrid are the only teams that can seriously dream of lifting the trophy, but if you ask me who's one step ahead... I'll take a guess: Barcelona.

Why? Easy. Because in La Liga, the big obstacle for the big teams is breaking down teams that sit back, especially away from home. And that's where Barça has plenty of firepower. They're an attacking team that plays very open games and has many options to hurt their opponents. I don't think they'll get bogged down in those kinds of games, although in Europe, where they'll be required to be more solid defensively, it'll be a different story.

They've kept the core of last season's team (Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, Pedri...) and added Rashford to rotate up front, plus Joan García, last season's best goalkeeper. With that style of play and that squad, they're my number one favorite.

Real Madrid, on the other hand, are in the midst of a transition. Yes, they've spent money on signings (Carreras, Huijsen, Arnold, Mastantuono...), but they still haven't covered their biggest loss: a real replacement for Toni Kroos. Without a midfield that commands and connects defense and attack, many games could get bogged down, especially if Mbappé or Vinicius aren't inspired. Last year, they won more because of individual flashes than because of collective play, and that could happen again. In addition, they have a short squad, few replacements up front, and a new coach (Xabi Alonso) who will need time to implement his ideas. That said, with the talent they have, they remain clear favorites for the top two.

And then there is Atlético Madrid, who have no excuses this year. They have spent more than €150 million on signings: Alex Baena (one of the best players in La Liga last season), Thiago Almada, Cardoso... All players who know the competition w

ell or who bring immediate quality. El Cholo is keeping the core of the team together and knows that a top-three finish is the minimum, but with this squad, they have to fight for the title.

Atleti's big challenge will be to improve away from home. At the Metropolitano, they are a steamroller by sheer inertia, but away from home they struggle to impose themselves, press high and be brave. If they manage to take that step, watch out, because they can be scary. If not, they will remain a step below Barça and Madrid.

As for key players:

● Barça → Lamine Yamal as a confirmed rising star, Raphinha to confirm his great season, and Lewandowski, who, although a veteran, remains decisive.

● Madrid → Mbappé and Vinicius, the best attacking duo in La Liga, although they don't always shine together.

● Atleti → Julián Álvarez and Baena as goal scorers, plus Sorloth to finish things off.

In summary: Barça and Madrid have 70-75% of the chances between them, I give the rest to Atleti... and the rest of the teams are just watching.

🎯 The battle for fourth place in the Champions League

If we take Barça, Madrid, and Atleti out of the equation, the last ticket to the Champions League will be fought over mainly by Athletic Club and Villarreal. They are the two teams with the best chances, although they play very differently.

Athletic Club – Fortress of San Mamés

Last season, Athletic earned the right to be considered the “fourth big” team in La Liga. At San Mamés, they were a wall: maximum intensity, high pressure, solid defense, and an atmosphere that pushes like few others in Europe. Beating them there was almost impossible.

Away from home, they didn't do too badly either, winning tight games thanks to their finishing. And the best thing about the summer for them has not been any signings, but retaining Nico Williams, who was on the verge of joining Barça. They are sticking to their philosophy of only signing Basque players, so the transfer market has not been very busy: the most notable signing is Areso, a right-back with experience in the top flight.

The problem may come with the depth of the squad. Between the league, cup and Champions League, they will need to rotate, and that is where you can see that the substitutes are a step or two below the starters. The Williams brothers and Sancet are key, but if any of them get injured, the level drops considerably.

Villarreal – Goals galore... and holes at the back

Villarreal, on the other hand, has had a fairly busy transfer window. They lost Baena, but it was a foregone conclusion and they have reinvested well, signing players with La Liga experience and immediate quality. The big improvement is in the depth of the bench, which gives them more options to rotate without losing quality.

Their historical problem is defense. Last year, they were a disaster at the back: they conceded too many goals and almost always needed to score two or three goals to win. They are dynamite in attack, but if you want to compete at the top, you need to learn how to win 0-1.

The bad news is that, from what we've seen in preseason, it looks like more of the same: an offensive team, very lively, capable of scoring goals but also conceding a lot. If they don't fix that, the consistency required in La Liga could choke them.

Who will take fourth place?

Based on their squad and rotation options, I would say that this could be Villarreal's year. They have more depth than Athletic, and in a 38-game season, that's gold. Even so, it will be a very close fight, because Valverde's side are a safe bet at home.

🌍 Europa League and Conference League: who dreams of traveling across the continent

In this fight, one name stands out above the rest: Real Betis. Pellegrini's team has lost some important players (Jesús Rodríguez and Antony, who won more than one game for them last year), but they still have a solid and well-balanced squad.

The transfer market has been interesting, they have added options for rotation and maintain a recognizable style. Of course, much of their magic comes from Isco, and we all know that his physical condition does not always hold up for the entire season. Even so, Betis is reliable at home, competitive away (especially against mid-table and lower-table teams) and knows how to manage rotations in weeks with three competitions. Therefore, without reaching the level of Athletic or Villarreal to fight for the Champions League, for me they are the clear favorites for the Europa League.

Conference League: open field with surprises

Here, things are much more open. Last season, we saw teams like Rayo Vallecano and Celta sneak into Europe, but this year the context is different.

● Rayo Vallecano: they have barely strengthened and their squad is short on quality and quantity. Last year they performed above expectations, and now, with the travel and wear and tear of the Conference League, they could suffer a lot. I wouldn't be surprised to see them looking more towards relegation than towards Europe.

● Celta: their situation is different. Claudio Giráldez has continuity, knows how to keep the whole squad motivated and trusts the youth academy. They have added Ferran Jutglà and Bryan Zaragoza (who, if he is on form, can be a real threat) and have kept Iago Aspas as their star player. Their weak point remains their defense, but they combine youth and experience well. They are strong at home and brave away, so I see them as candidates to repeat their European presence, although I don't know if it will be in the Europa League or the Conference League.

● Osasuna: an interesting dark horse. They have a new coach, Lisci (who comes from Mirandés, where he had a great season in the Second Division), and a team that fits in quite well with his style of play. If they adapt quickly, they could cause some trouble and pick up key points at El Sadar, which has always been a fortress.

Other names such as Real Sociedad, Valencia, and Sevilla don't give me the impression that they are built to fight hard for Europe this year. Sevilla in particular, who seem closer to getting into trouble than to exciting fans with a continental project.

⚠️ Mid-table and relegation: everyone is looking down

Apart from the teams we have already mentioned in the fight for the top and for Europe, the rest know that if they get off to a bad start or get into a bad run, relegation is just around the corner. The equality at the bottom is brutal: a string of injuries or a month without a win and you can go from being comfortable to having your head above water.

We saw it last season: Girona, Alavés and even Sevilla flirted with the drop, while others, such as Getafe and Espanyol, managed to escape when all seemed lost.

The newly promoted teams: the ones who suffer the most

As is almost always the case, the teams coming up from the second division are the ones most likely to suffer: Real Oviedo, Elche, and Levante.

● Elche: in my opinion, the weakest of the three. A poor transfer market, a squad of average quality, and no style that can give them a competitive edge in the first division.

● Levante: more experience in the category and a solid team, capable of winning games from defense, a candidate to keep many clean sheets.

● Oviedo: not as strong individually as Levante, but a very solid team. They will be tough at home, but could suffer a lot away.

Other candidates for trouble

● Alavés: narrowly avoided relegation last year and has not improved much. If they hit a rough patch, it could be very difficult to recover.

● Mallorca: internal problems with the coach and a second half of last season to forget. If they repeat that performance, drastic decisions will have to be made

● Rayo Vallecano: with hardly any reinforcements and the Conference League ahead of them. A short squad, long trips... the danger of total exhaustion.

● Girona: they finished last season badly and depend heavily on the signings they make. They have the backing of the City Group, and signings such as Vitor Reis and the loan of Lemar could make all the difference. Their big advantage: they score goals, something that is worth its weight in gold in the fight for survival.

● Sevilla: the big question mark. If they lose Lukebakio or Vargas in the transfer market, they lose much of their attacking balance. They lack goals, solidity, and a dominant midfield. The demanding and tense atmosphere doesn't help either, and they are already starting with physical problems. Either they react quickly, or it wouldn't be surprising to see them at the bottom.

Those who know how to live in the mud

This is where Getafe and Espanyol come in. They are teams built to compete, with coaches who know the game and squads suited to their style. They know how to close out games, pick up points without playing beautifully, and scrape together many valuable draws. Barring a catastrophe, they shouldn't be too involved in the drama.

My relegation predictions 📝

● Elche → worst squad and no clear plan to compete.

● Alavés → high risk of a string of bad results

● Real Oviedo → solid at home, but lacking experience and weak away.

Possible negative surprises: Rayo Vallecano, Sevilla, Girona, and Mallorca.

📊 Final predictions for La Liga 25/26

● 🏆 Champion: Barcelona – most complete squad, attacking play and weapons to open up difficult games.

● ⚽ Top scorer: Mbappé – pure firepower, favorite to repeat as top scorer.

European places

1️⃣ Barcelona

2️⃣ Atlético de Madrid (yes, above Real Madrid)

3️⃣ Real Madrid

4️⃣ Villarreal – squad depth key to lasting the season.

5️⃣ Athletic Club – strong at home at San Mamés, but short squad to compete on three fronts.

6️⃣ Real Betis – solid unit, Pellegrini knows how to manage rotations.

7️⃣ Celta – brave, with goals and well managed by Giráldez.

Relegation

⛔ Elche – the weakest squad in the division.

⛔ Alavés – high risk of sinking if they string together poor results.

⛔ Real Oviedo – competitive at home, but inexperienced and very fragile away.

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